5. Binomial Distribution & Discrete Random Variables

Explain how the value of p, the probability of success, affects the shape of the distribution of a binomial random variable.

Using a Distribution to Find Probabilities In Exercises 11–26, find the indicated probabilities using the geometric distribution, the Poisson distribution, or the binomial distribution. Then determine whether the events are unusual. If convenient, use a table or technology to find the probabilities.

Living Donor Transplants The mean number of organ transplants from living donors performed per day in the United States in 2020 was about 16. Find the probability that the number of organ transplants from living donors performed on any given day is (a) exactly 12 (Source: Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network)

Binomial Probability Formula. In Exercises 13 and 14, answer the questions designed to help understand the rationale for the binomial probability formula.

Guessing Answers Standard tests, such as the SAT, ACT, or Medical College Admission Test (MCAT), typically use multiple choice questions, each with five possible answers (a, b, c, d, e), one of which is correct. Assume that you guess the answers to the first three questions.

c. Based on the preceding results, what is the probability of getting exactly one correct answer when three guesses are made?

 In Exercises 5–8, assume that the Poisson distribution applies; assume that the mean number of Atlantic hurricanes in the United States is 5.5 per year, as in Example 1; and proceed to find the indicated probability.

Hurricanes

a. Find the probability that in a year, there will be 7 hurricanes.

For a binomial distribution with probability of success $p=\frac{1}{4}$ and number of trials $n=36$, what is the expected value of the distribution?

In Exercises 1–3, find the indicated probabilities using the geometric distribution, the Poisson distribution, or the binomial distribution. Then determine whether the events are unusual. If convenient, use a table or technology to find the probabilities.

One out of every 42 tax returns for incomes over \$1 million requires an audit. An auditor is examining tax returns for over \$1 million. Find the probability that (b) the first return requiring an audit is the first or second return the tax auditor examines, 

Tennis Challenge In a recent U.S. Open tennis tournament, there were 945 challenges made by singles players, and 255 of them resulted in referee calls that were overturned. The accompanying table lists the results by gender.

d. If 1 of the 945 challenges is randomly selected, find the probability that it was made by a man or was upheld with an overturned call.

Texting and Driving. In Exercises 21–26, refer to the accompanying table, which describes probabilities for groups of five drivers. The random variable x is the number of drivers in a group who say that they text while driving (based on data from an Arity survey of drivers).

Range Rule of Thumb for Significant Events Use the range rule of thumb to determine whether 4 is a significantly high number of drivers who say that they text while driving.

Which of the following is a criterion for a binomial probability experiment?

In a binomial experiment with $n=20$ trials and probability of success $p=0.70$, what is the expected value (mean) of the number of successes?

In Exercises 1–5, assume that 4.2% of workers test positive when tested for illegal drugs (based on data from Quest Diagnostics). Assume that a group of ten workers is randomly selected.

Workplace Drug Testing If four of the ten workers test positive for illegal drugs, is that a significantly high result?

Testing a Drug A drug manufacturer claims that a drug cures a rare skin disease 75% of the time. The claim is checked by testing the drug on 100 patients. If at least 70 patients are cured, then this claim will be accepted. Use this information in Exercises 31 and 32.

Find the probability that the claim will be accepted, assuming that the actual probability that the drug cures the skin disease is 65%.

In Exercises 21–26, find the indicated probabilities using the geometric distribution, the Poisson distribution, or the binomial distribution. Then determine whether the events are unusual. If convenient, use a table or technology to find the probabilities.

Fourteen percent of noninstitutionalized U.S. adults smoke cigarettes. After randomly selecting ten noninstitutionalized U.S. adults, you ask them whether they smoke cigarettes. Find the probability that the first adult who smokes cigarettes is (b) the fourth or fifth person selected.

In Exercises 21–26, find the indicated probabilities using the geometric distribution, the Poisson distribution, or the binomial distribution. Then determine whether the events are unusual. If convenient, use a table or technology to find the probabilities.

Fourteen percent of noninstitutionalized U.S. adults smoke cigarettes. After randomly selecting ten noninstitutionalized U.S. adults, you ask them whether they smoke cigarettes. Find the probability that the first adult who smokes cigarettes is (a) the third person selected.

Simulation: Predicting the Future Parapsychology (psi) is a field of study that deals with clairvoyance or precognition. Psi made its way back into the news when a professional, refereed journal published an article by Cornell psychologist Daryl Bem, in which he claimed to demonstrate that psi is a real phenomenon. In the article Bem stated that certain individuals behave today as if they already know what is going to happen in the future. That is, individuals adjust current behavior in anticipation of events that are going to happen in the future. Here, we will present a simplified version of Bem’s research.

f. Look at the graph of the outcomes of the simulation from part (c). Explain why the normal model might be used to estimate the probability of obtaining at least 24 correct guesses in 40 trials assuming the probability of success is 0.5. Use the model to estimate the P-value.