BackTesting Claims about a Mean (Population Mean, $oldsymbol{ ext{μ}}$ Unknown)
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Testing Claims about a Mean (μ is Unknown)
Introduction
In inferential statistics, we often wish to test claims about a population mean. When the population standard deviation () is unknown, we use the t-distribution to conduct hypothesis tests. This section outlines the requirements, methods, and examples for testing claims about a mean when is unknown.
Requirements
Simple Random Samples: The sample data must be collected using a simple random sampling method.
Population Distribution: Either the population is normally distributed, or the sample size is sufficiently large ().
Notation
: Sample standard deviation
: Sample size
: Sample mean
: Population mean
: Null hypothesis
: Alternative hypothesis
Test Statistic
When is unknown, the test statistic for the mean is:
This statistic follows a t-distribution with degrees of freedom.
Properties of the t-Distribution
The t-distribution varies based on sample size (degrees of freedom).
It has the same general bell shape as the normal distribution.
The mean of the t-distribution is 0.
As sample size increases, the t-distribution approaches the normal distribution.
P-value Method
The p-value method is commonly used to determine whether to reject the null hypothesis. The p-value is the probability of observing a test statistic as extreme as, or more extreme than, the value observed under the null hypothesis.
Example 1
Scenario: Testing if the population mean of student course evaluations is equal to 4.00.
Sample Data: , ,
Hypotheses:
Test Statistic:
P-value:
Conclusion: Since , we fail to reject . There is not sufficient evidence to reject the claim that the population mean is 4.00.
Example 2
Scenario: Measure your pulse rate in a one-minute span. Assume pulse rates are normally distributed.
Task: Conduct a t-test to determine if your professor's resting pulse rate is different from the class mean, using a significance level of 0.05.
Critical Value Method
Alternatively, the critical value method can be used, but it requires calculation of critical t-values, which may not be readily available on calculators. This method is less commonly used in practice when p-values are easily accessible.
Confidence Interval Method
Confidence intervals can be used to test claims about a mean. If the claimed mean falls within the confidence interval, we fail to reject the null hypothesis.
Example 3
Scenario: Using the data from Example 1, construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean.
Calculation:
Conclusion: Since 4.00 is within the interval, we fail to reject the null hypothesis.
Example 4
Scenario: Students estimate the length of one minute without using a clock. Test if the mean is 60 seconds.
Sample Data:
Time (s)
69
39
65
62
64
63
66
48
64
70
96
91
45
21
60
63
Hypotheses:
Significance Level:
Confidence Interval:
Conclusion: Since 60 is within the interval, we fail to reject the null hypothesis. Students are reasonably good at estimating the length of one minute.
Summary Table: Methods for Testing Claims about a Mean
Method | Key Steps | Decision Rule |
|---|---|---|
P-value Method | Calculate t-statistic, find p-value, compare to significance level | Reject if |
Critical Value Method | Calculate t-statistic, compare to critical t-value | Reject if |
Confidence Interval Method | Construct confidence interval for mean | Reject if claimed mean is outside interval |
Additional info:
The t-distribution is robust to moderate departures from normality, especially for larger sample sizes ().
Always check assumptions before conducting hypothesis tests.