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Ch. 4 - Probability
Triola - Elementary Statistics 14th Edition
Triola14th EditionElementary StatisticsISBN: 9780137366446Not the one you use?Change textbook
Chapter 4, Problem 4.1.41c

Florida Pick 3 In the Florida Pick 3 lottery, you can place a “straight” bet of \(1 by selecting the exact order of three digits between 0 and 9 inclusive (with repetition allowed), so the probability of winning is 1/1000. If the same three numbers are drawn in the same order, you collect \)500, so your net profit is \$499.


c. Is there much of a difference between the actual odds against winning and the payoff odds?

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Step 1: Understand the problem. The question asks us to compare the actual odds against winning with the payoff odds. The actual odds against winning are based on the probability of winning, while the payoff odds are based on the net profit relative to the bet amount.
Step 2: Calculate the actual odds against winning. The probability of winning is given as \( \frac{1}{1000} \). The probability of losing is \( 1 - \frac{1}{1000} = \frac{999}{1000} \). The actual odds against winning are the ratio of losing to winning, which is \( \frac{999}{1} \).
Step 3: Calculate the payoff odds. The payoff odds are determined by the net profit relative to the bet amount. The net profit is \$499, and the bet amount is \$1. Therefore, the payoff odds are \( 499:1 \).
Step 4: Compare the actual odds against winning and the payoff odds. The actual odds against winning are \( 999:1 \), while the payoff odds are \( 499:1 \). To determine the difference, note that the actual odds are significantly higher than the payoff odds.
Step 5: Conclude the analysis. The difference between the actual odds against winning and the payoff odds indicates that the lottery is not a fair game, as the actual odds of losing are much greater than the reward offered for winning.

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Key Concepts

Here are the essential concepts you must grasp in order to answer the question correctly.

Probability

Probability is a measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur, expressed as a number between 0 and 1. In the context of the Florida Pick 3 lottery, the probability of winning with a straight bet is 1/1000, indicating that there is one favorable outcome (matching the exact three digits) out of 1000 possible combinations.
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Odds

Odds represent the ratio of the probability of an event occurring to the probability of it not occurring. In the case of the lottery, the odds against winning can be calculated as the ratio of losing outcomes (999) to winning outcomes (1), which gives odds of 999:1. This contrasts with the payoff odds, which are based on the potential winnings relative to the stake.
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Payoff Odds

Payoff odds refer to the ratio of the net profit to the amount wagered. In the Florida Pick 3 lottery, if you win $500 on a $1 bet, your net profit is $499. The payoff odds can be expressed as 499:1, which indicates the return on investment for a winning bet, and this can differ significantly from the actual odds against winning.
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Related Practice
Textbook Question

Mega Millions As of this writing, the Mega Millions lottery is run in 44 states. Winning the jackpot requires that you select the correct five different numbers from 1 to 70 and, in a separate drawing, you must also select the correct single number from 1 to 25.


c. How does the probability compare to the probability for the old Mega Millions game which involved the selection of five different numbers between 1 and 75 and a separate single number between 1 and 15?

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Textbook Question

Births in the United States In the United States, the true probability of a baby being a boy is 0.512 (based on the data available at this writing). For a family having three children, find the following.


d. The probability that at least one of the children is a girl.

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Textbook Question

Sampling Eye Color Based on a study by Dr. P. Sorita Soni at Indiana University, assume that eye colors in the United States are distributed as follows: 40% brown, 35% blue, 12% green, 7% gray, 6% hazel.


d. If two people are randomly selected, what is the probability that at least one of them has brown eyes?

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Textbook Question

In Exercises 21-28, find the probability and answer the questions.


X-Linked Genetic Disease Men have XY (or YX) chromosomes and women have XX chromosomes. X-linked recessive genetic diseases (such as juvenile retinoschisis) occur when there is a defective X chromosome that occurs without a paired X chromosome that is not defective. In the following, represent a defective X chromosome with lowercase x, so a child with the xY or Yx pair of chromosomes will have the disease and a child with XX or XY or YX or xX or Xx will not have the disease. Each parent contributes one of the chromosomes to the child.


c. If a mother has one defective x chromosome and one good X chromosome and the father has good XY chromosomes, what is the probability that a son will inherit the disease?

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Textbook Question

Organ Donors USA Today provided information about a survey (conducted for Donate Life America) of 5100 adult Internet users. Of the respondents, 2346 said they are willing to donate organs after death. In this survey, 100 adults were surveyed in each state and the District of Columbia, and results were weighted to account for the different state population sizes.


b. Based on the poll results, what is the probability of randomly selecting an adult who is willing to donate organs after death?


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Textbook Question

Phase I of a Clinical Trial A clinical test on humans of a new drug is normally done in three phases. Phase I is conducted with a relatively small number of healthy volunteers. For example, a phase I test of bexarotene involved only 14 subjects. Assume that we want to treat 14 healthy humans with this new drug and we have 16 suitable volunteers available.


c. If 14 subjects are randomly selected and treated at the same time, what is the probability of selecting the 14 youngest subjects?

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