Interpreting P-value The Ericsson method is one of several met...

Question

Interpreting P-value The Ericsson method is one of several methods claimed to increase the likelihood of a baby girl. In a clinical trial, results could be analyzed with a formal hypothesis test with the alternative hypothesis of p > 0.5 which corresponds to the claim that the method increases the likelihood of having a girl, so that the proportion of girls is greater than 0.5. If you have an interest in establishing the success of the method, which of the following P-values would you prefer as a result in your hypothesis test: 0.999, 0.5, 0.95, 0.05, 0.01, 0.001? Why?

Accepted Answer

Hello there. Today we're to solve the following practice problem together. So first off, let us read the problem and highlight all the key pieces of information that we need to use in order to solve this problem. A new medication is tested to determine if it lowers blood pressure more effectively than a placebo. The alternative hypothesis is that the medication leads to a greater reduction in blood pressure, meaning the mean reduction is greater than 0. After conducting the experiment, the following P values are possible outcomes 0.850, 0.400, 0.070, 0.020. 0.005 and 0.950. If you want to demonstrate the medication's effectiveness, which P value would you most want to obtain? Awesome. So it appears for this particular prom we're asked to ultimately figure out which P value would you most want to obtain if you want to demonstrate the medications, this particular medication's effectiveness. So we're trying to figure out which P value would we want to obtain most. So now that we know what we're ultimately trying to solve for, let's read off our multiple choice answers to see what our final answer might be. A is 0.070, B is 0.005, C is 0.850, and D is 0.400. Awesome. So first off, let us recall and note that the P value measures the probability of observing results as extreme as those obtained, assuming that the null hypothesis is true. So as we should also recall a note, the alternative hypothesis is that the mean that once again we need to note that our alternative hypothesis is that the medication will reduce blood pressure more than a placebo, so this means that the mean reduction will be greater than 0. And as also we should note that a small p value will indicate strong evidence against the null hypothesis and will support the alternative hypothesis. Let us also note that we are given the following P values, which is 0.8500.4. 00. 0.070. 0.020. And we're also given 0.005, and our final number that we're given is 0.950. Fantastic. So, we need to note that in order to demonstrate effectiveness, as we should recall, we want to have the smallest p value, which out of all of our data points, our smallest p-value will have to be 0.005. So that means that a P value. So, once again, if we have a P. Value Of 0.005, it will mean that there is only a 0.5% chance of observing such results if the medication is not effective, making it the most convincing evidence for the medication's success. So once again, our final answer, without a doubt has to be, so our P value has to be. Since once again we're asked to figure out what P value would you most want to obtain will have to be 0.005. So that is our final answer, and this corresponds to multiple choice answer letter B, which once again is 0.005. Thank you so much for watching. Hopefully that helped, and I can't wait to see you in the next video. Bye.

Key Concepts

P-value

Hypothesis Testing

Significance Level

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