4. Probability

In your coin purse, you have 3 quarters, 4 nickels, & 2 dimes. If you pick a coin at random, what is the probability that it will be a quarter?

In Exercises 21-28, find the probability and answer the questions.

YSORT Gender Selection MicroSort’s YSORT gender selection technique is designed to increase the likelihood that a baby will be a boy. At one point before clinical trials of the YSORT gender selection technique were discontinued, 291 births consisted of 239 baby boys and 52 baby girls (based on data from the Genetics & IVF Institute). Based on these results, what is the probability of a boy born to a couple using MicroSort’s YSORT method? Does it appear that the technique is effective in increasing the likelihood that a baby will be a boy?

In Exercises 21-28, find the probability and answer the questions.

Mendelian Genetics When Mendel conducted his famous genetics experiments with peas, one sample of offspring consisted of 428 green peas and 152 yellow peas. Based on those results, estimate the probability of getting an offspring pea that is green. Is the result reasonably close to the expected value of as Mendel claimed?

In Exercises 21-28, find the probability and answer the questions.

Guessing Birthdays On their first date, Kelly asks Mike to guess the date of her birth, not including the year.

b. Would it be unlikely for him to guess correctly on his first try?

Dice and Coins

a. Find the probability that when a single six-sided die is rolled, the outcome is 5.

In Exercises 21-28, find the probability and answer the questions.

Social Networking In a Pew Research Center survey of Internet users, 3732 respondents say that they use social networking sites and 1380 respondents say that they do not use social networking sites. What is the probability that a randomly selected person uses a social networking site? Does that result suggest that it is likely (with a probability of 0.5 or greater) for someone to use social networking sites?

In Exercises 21-28, find the probability and answer the questions.

X-Linked Genetic Disease Men have XY (or YX) chromosomes and women have XX chromosomes. X-linked recessive genetic diseases (such as juvenile retinoschisis) occur when there is a defective X chromosome that occurs without a paired X chromosome that is not defective. In the following, represent a defective X chromosome with lowercase x, so a child with the xY or Yx pair of chromosomes will have the disease and a child with XX or XY or YX or xX or Xx will not have the disease. Each parent contributes one of the chromosomes to the child.

a. If a father has the defective x chromosome and the mother has good XX chromosomes, what is the probability that a son will inherit the disease?

In Exercises 21-28, find the probability and answer the questions.

X-Linked Genetic Disease Men have XY (or YX) chromosomes and women have XX chromosomes. X-linked recessive genetic diseases (such as juvenile retinoschisis) occur when there is a defective X chromosome that occurs without a paired X chromosome that is not defective. In the following, represent a defective X chromosome with lowercase x, so a child with the xY or Yx pair of chromosomes will have the disease and a child with XX or XY or YX or xX or Xx will not have the disease. Each parent contributes one of the chromosomes to the child.

c. If a mother has one defective x chromosome and one good X chromosome and the father has good XY chromosomes, what is the probability that a son will inherit the disease?

In Exercises 29–32, use the given sample space or construct the required sample space to find the indicated probability.

Three Children Use this sample space listing the eight simple events that are possible when a couple has three children (as in Example 2): {bbb, bbg, bgb, bgg, gbb, gbg, ggb, ggg}. Assume that boys and girls are equally likely, so that the eight simple events are equally likely. Find the probability that when a couple has three children, there is exactly one girl.

In Exercises 29–32, use the given sample space or construct the required sample space to find the indicated probability.

Four Children Exercise 29 lists the sample space for a couple having three children. After identifying the sample space for a couple having four children, find the probability of getting three girls and one boy (in any order).

In Exercises 33–40, use the given probability value to determine whether the sample results are significant.

Voting Repeat the preceding Exercise 33 after replacing 40 Democrats being placed on the first line of voting ballots with 26 Democrats being placed on the first line. The probability of getting a result as high as 26 is 0.058638.

In Exercises 33–40, use the given probability value to determine whether the sample results are significant.

Voting Repeat Exercise 33 after replacing 40 Democrats being placed on the first line of voting ballots with 14 Democrats being placed on the first line. The probability of getting a result as low as 14 is 0.029792.

In Exercises 33–40, use the given probability value to determine whether the sample results are significant.

Voting Repeat Exercise 33 after replacing 40 Democrats being placed on the first line of voting ballots with 27 Democrats being placed on the first line. The probability of getting a result as high as 27 is 0.029792.

In Exercises 33–40, use the given probability value to determine whether the sample results are significant.

Selfie Deaths Based on Priceonomics data describing 49 deaths while taking selfies, it was found that 37 of those deaths were males. Assuming that males and females are equally likely to have selfie deaths, there is a 0.000235 probability of getting 37 or more males. Is the result of 37 males significantly low, significantly high, or neither? Does the result suggest that male selfie deaths are more likely than female selfie deaths?

Florida Pick 3 In the Florida Pick 3 lottery, you can place a “straight” bet of $1 by selecting the exact order of three digits between 0 and 9 inclusive (with repetition allowed), so the probability of winning is 1/1000. If the same three numbers are drawn in the same order, you collect $500, so your net profit is $499.

a. Find the actual odds against winning.